It was eight weeks ago when Morgan Rogers stood on the Sunderland turf, looking confused while his coach scolded him over not reading a through-ball. At that point, as the club endured a six-game winless run, the question was whether his performances were a symptom or a cause of Villa's broader struggles.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
On Sunday, in contrast, the manager's outburst was entirely decidedly more positive. After the England international swept in his second to reclaim Villa's lead, the boss tore off his coat, threw his arms wide and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club were on their way to a 10th successive win and despite not winning their opening six matches, find themselves only three points off the leaders Arsenal.
Are They Genuine Hopefuls?
That’s an exceptionally difficult query to address. Past precedent, a general sense of this institution, suggests not. Furthermore, they've rarely been wholly dominant during this run, despite the fact the wins have piled up.
As per Opta, twice all season have Villa posted an xG significantly higher than the other team. For a team who have strung together a ten-match winning streak, Villa appear curiously susceptible – but right now the tight outcomes are swinging for them.
The Reliant Strategy
The prevailing tactic seems to be to trade blows with an opponent before hoping Rogers to bail them out with some clinical strikes. This occurred against Leeds, it happened in London, and once more when facing Manchester United.
The initial strike originated from a superb shot, bent precisely inside the post from a wide position. For his second proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of his first as he pounced on a setup by his strike partner.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Can It Last?
Logic says not. During the latest victory, the opponents managed a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. They have triumphed in eight consecutive games by just one goal. They have allowed goals in nearly all of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean could be the most significant challenge Villa will encounter over the coming weeks. The forward, in all likelihood, cannot maintain blasting the ball past despairing goalkeepers forever.
Potential for Growth
Perhaps there is a different scenario where, instead of luck running out, the level of play rises to match the results. Key players could still rediscover their best form.
- Ollie Watkins may begin to finding the net regularly.
- The winger could transform into the player he was at Borussia Dortmund.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are set to come back from the treatment room, strengthening a periodically leaky defence.
Maybe within that lies the possibility of a title challenge, yet it seems unlikely can continue to depend solely on Morgan Rogers.
Relishing the Unlikely
But then, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable the team would sit in a Champions League place in December. And certainly two months ago, few could imagine the young forward as the year closed would be at the forefront of a hunt for the title while looking like a crucial player for the national team.
This remarkable period must be cherished for the very reason that it appears so improbable. When the match-winner faced the Villa faithful when the game ended orchestrating the applause, he seemed to be relishing every moment. As he deserves to. Such periods are rare in football and ought to be celebrated.
