A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the nation and caused chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but very few politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two pieces that strive for impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless official who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid points, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has has valuable insights to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
